U.S. Business Activity Expansion Reaches Lowest Level in Six Months in December

U.S. business activity grew at its slowest pace in six months, as reflected in the S&P Global’s preliminary composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which fell to 53.0 from 54.2 in November. This deceleration was characterized by a significant decrease in new business, reaching the smallest growth in 20 months, coupled with a decline in new orders for goods the first drop in a year.

Both the services and manufacturing sectors contributed to this slowdown, with the services PMI dipping to 52.9, a six-month low, and the manufacturing PMI dropping to 51.8, the lowest since July. These trends indicate that the recent surge in economic growth is losing steam, suggesting further softening could occur in early 2026.

The U.S. economy faced notable volatility throughout 2025, largely due to major policy ces by President Donald Trump, which included immigration restrictions and new tariffs that disrupted trade and heightened prices. Additionally, an unprecedented federal government shutdown in October and November created uncertainty and delayed essential economic reporting.

GDP data indicate a contraction in the first quarter, a rebound in the second quarter, and expected growth in the third. However, ongoing slowdowns in the fourth quarter raise concerns. Issues like persistent labor shortages, increasing input costs, particularly in services, and demand worries contribute to inflation fears, which may influence future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Overall, the current slowdown in business activity highlights the ongoing challenges for the U.S. economy, exacerbated by policy-induced disruptions and global economic uncertainties. The upcoming months will be crucial in assessing whether this trend will persist and its impact on broader economic indicators.