Hassan Likely to Maintain Presidency in Tanzania as Key Rivals Excluded

Tanzania’s presidential election on October 29, 2025, is expected to reinforce the dominance of President Samia Suluhu Hassan and her ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), following the disqualification of key opposition candidates. The Independent National Electoral Commission (NEC) barred the main opposition party, CHADEMA, from participating after its leader, Tundu Lissu, was arrested in April 2025 on treason charges related to calls for electoral reforms. Additionally, Luhaga Mpina, the presidential candidate for ACT-Wazalendo, faced disqualification due to procedural issues with his party’s nomination.

As a result, only candidates from smaller parties will contest the presidency, effectively creating a one-party race. This situation has raised significant concerns among human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International, which reported instances of enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests, and extrajudicial ings. These violations have been criticized for undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Despite these challenges, President Hassan’s campaign is centered on promises of infrastructure development, education, and national unity, built around her “Four Rs”: reconciliation, reforms, rebuilding, and resilience. She seeks to continue the progress made during her administration.

Election results are anticipated within three days of the vote, with the NEC allowed up to seven days to announce the final outcome. Given the elimination of major opposition candidates, Hassan is expected to secure re-election and further entrench the CCM’s long-standing political influence in Tanzania. The overall environment raises questions about the fairness and openness of the electoral process, signaling potential challenges for Tanzanian democracy moving forward.