Experts Warn World Bank Fuel Import Advice Could Undermine Nigeria’s Energy Independence

Energy experts have strongly criticised recent recommendations by the World Bank urging Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and fully liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, describing the advice as ill timed and potentially harmful to the nation’s economic progress.

Renowned energy economist Ken Ife expressed concern that the recommendation contradicts Nigeria’s long term vision of energy self reliance. While acknowledging that parts of the Nigeria Development Update were analytically sound, he argued that encouraging fuel imports would reverse gains made in local refining and value addition.

According to Ife, the proposal directly conflicts with the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises domestic crude supply to local refineries under the Domestic Crude Obligation framework. He stressed that abandoning this approach would weaken Nigeria’s push to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

He further warned that increased reliance on imports could expose the country to global supply shocks, worsen foreign exce pressures and discourage investment in domestic refining capacity. This comes at a time when Nigeria is expanding its refining infrastructure and aiming to meet local demand sustainably.

Echoing similar concerns, energy analyst Kelvin Emmanuel described the World Bank’s position as disconnected from current market realities. He revealed that the report in question had reportedly been withdrawn from the World Bank’s platform.

Emmanuel dismissed claims that imported petrol would be cheaper, noting that prevailing global oil prices make such assumptions unrealistic. He explained that when logistics and supply chain costs are considered, imported fuel would likely be more expensive than locally refined alternatives.

He also pointed out that petrol prices in Nigeria remain relatively lower compared to neighbouring countries, arguing that price pressures are largely due to inconsistencies in implementing domestic supply policies rather than actual scarcity.

Both experts cautioned that policy missteps at this stage could derail Nigeria’s energy transition goals, urging authorities to remain committed to strengthening local refining and reducing import dependence.