The U.S. experienced a notable increase in initial jobless claims, rising by 44,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000. This surge marked the largest weekly uptick in almost four and a half years, reversing a prior decline to a three-year low. Economists had anticipated a more modest rise, projecting claims around 220,000.
The increase is primarily attributed to seasonal factors, particularly surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday, which tends to skew the data. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, highlighted that much of the volatility stems from “seasonal noise.” He reassured that the underlying labor market conditions show stability, with initial claims remaining slightly below the historical trend.
To mitigate seasonal effects, analysts often examine the four-week moving average of claims, which increased by 2,000 to 216,750, indicating steadiness in the labor market despite the recent claims uptick. Continuing claims, or the number of people receiving benefits after the first week of aid, fell by 99,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.838 million, possibly reflecting individuals reaching the end of their benefit eligibility.
Despite high-profile layoffs from companies like Amazon, claims are historically low, likely due to generous severance packages and available reemployment opportunities. The Federal Reserve recently reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, citing persistent labor market risks. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted a possible overestimation of job numbers, signaling potential downward revisions. In economic news, the trade deficit narrowed by 10.9% in September, indicating a record high in goods exports that may positively influence GDP growth, with third-quarter estimates at 3.5%.
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