The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to “normalise” Nigeria’s inflation data for December 2025 following projections of a sharp spike in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which it says is driven by technical factors rather than economic realities.
The disclosure was made on Monday during a virtual stakeholders’ engagement jointly convened by the NBS and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). According to the Bureau, the anticipated increase in headline inflation is largely the result of base effects arising from the recent rebasing of the CPI series.
Several analysts have projected December 2025 inflation to spike to between 31.4 and 32.4 per cent year-on-year. However, the Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, clarified that the surge is artificial, stemming from the adoption of 2024 as the new CPI base year after a 15-year gap from the previous 2009 base year.
Adeniran explained that rebasing naturally introduces base effects, especially when December 2024 is set equal to 100 for index linkage purposes. He stressed that such spikes do not reflect structural changes in the economy but are arithmetic outcomes common in statistical practice.
To address this, the NBS said it would apply a normalisation process in line with global best practices outlined in the CPI Manual 2020. Instead of using a single-month reference period, the Bureau will adopt a 12-month average CPI for 2024 as the reference point, thereby removing the artificial inflationary spike.
Director of Price Statistics at NBS, Dr Ayo Anthony, said the adjustment would affect inflation figures from January to December 2025 but added that the overall impact would be minimal and clearly communicated. He noted that over 400 new products were introduced into the CPI basket during the rebasing, while more than 200 items were removed to reflect current consumption patterns.
NESG Chief Executive Officer, Dr Tayo Aduloju, underscored the importance of credible inflation data as Nigeria transitions from economic stabilisation to consolidation, warning that misleading signals could lead to costly policy errors.
The NBS reaffirmed its commitment to transparency, stakeholder engagement, and regular rebasing of key economic indicators to strengthen confidence in official statistics.
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