Is the Naira on the Rebound? Analyzing Recent Trends in Nigeria’s Currency

The Nigerian naira has experienced notable fluctuations over the past year, prompting discussions about its potential rebound. In June 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) abandoned its currency peg, allowing the naira to float freely. This decision led to a significant depreciation, with the naira falling to a record low,

In response to these challenges, the CBN implemented several measures aimed at stabilizing the currency. These included unifying the official and parallel exchange rates and reducing costly petrol subsidies. These reforms aimed to strengthen public finances, stabilize the naira, and promote non-oil growth. (ft.com)

By early 2025, there were signs of stabilization. The naira appreciated to approximately ₦1,550 to US$1, reflecting a modest recovery from its previous lows. Analysts attributed this improvement to increased foreign exchange reserves, bolstered by higher oil prices and exports. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Nigeria’s economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, driven by improved security, higher oil production, and stronger consumer demand. (afdb.org)

However, challenges remain. Inflation, which had risen to 24.5% in 2023, was expected to moderate to 20.7% in 2025. Despite this anticipated decline, inflationary pressures continue to affect consumers. (afdb.org)

The CBN’s efforts to attract diaspora remittances have also shown promise. In October 2024, Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso announced plans to issue a diaspora bond in the United States in 2025, aiming to achieve $1 billion in monthly remittances. This initiative seeks to leverage the competitive value of the naira to attract investments from Nigerians abroad. (reuters.com)

While the naira has shown signs of recovery, its future trajectory depends on the successful implementation of ongoing economic reforms, sustained foreign exchange inflows, and the stabilization of inflation. The CBN’s proactive measures and the global economic environment will play crucial roles in determining the naira’s path forward.