Four Years On, Russia Feels the Costs of Its Miscalculation in Ukraine

Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin is still grappling with the consequences of a strategic miscalculation. Initially expecting a swift 10-day campaign, Russian forces have faced prolonged resistance from Ukraine, inflicting severe military and economic costs.

Estimates from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies indicate that nearly 1.2 million Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since the invasion began, with approximately 325,000 fatalities. By comparison, this surpasses combined US military losses in every conflict since World War II. Ukrainian officials continue to target Russian forces, aiming to outpace recruitment with battlefield losses.

Economically, Russia has endured growing strains despite initial resilience. Oil and gas exports have temporarily bolstered the economy, elevating Russia to the ninth-largest global economy in 2025. Yet the war has triggered labor shortages, soaring costs of basic goods, and inflation, with everyday items like cucumbers doubling in price, straining public finances and domestic life.

On the international stage, Russia has seen a marked decline in influence. The invasion prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO, doubling Russia’s border with the alliance. Reliance on China for trade and support has left Moscow in a subordinate position, while longstanding allies such as Syria, Iran, and Venezuela have faced crises that Russia could not prevent, further diminishing its global standing.

Analysts argue that Russia’s overreach in Ukraine has depleted its military, weakened its economy, and eroded its international influence. Four years later, what initially seemed like a strategic gamble has become a costly quagmire, highlighting the risks of misjudging both military capability and geopolitical consequences.