Europe could increasingly rely on Nigeria’s Dangote refinery for jet fuel as supply disruptions in the Middle East tighten the market, a recent Kpler report reveals. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut nearly 21 per cent of global seaborne jet fuel, reducing European imports by about 300,000 barrels per day, with 247,000 bpd normally destined for North West Europe.
Kpler noted that traditional backup suppliers in Asia are redirecting shipments to meet regional demand, while sanctions linked to Russian crude discourage relief from Indian cargoes. With eastern barrels constrained, attention is shifting to the Atlantic Basin, including the US Gulf Coast and West Africa, where the Dangote refinery exported around 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in 2025.
West Africa has become structurally long on refined products, largely due to Dangote’s output, meaning exports could continue even while domestic supply priorities are met. Analysts caution, however, that these alternative sources will not fully offset the shortfall created by lost Middle Eastern flows.
Kpler highlighted logistical challenges in Europe, including refinery configurations and infrastructure limits, noting that sustainable aviation fuel, while growing, accounts for only a small fraction of total supply. The report concludes that Europe will likely adjust to shortages through higher prices and longer trade routes, with Dangote refinery playing a key role in partially mitigating the supply gap.
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