Nigeria exported a total of 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, even as domestic refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, continue to struggle with inadequate local feedstock supply.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the country exported 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February. Production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day in January and 1.31 million barrels per day in February, while a significant portion of output continued to leave the country.
In total, Nigeria produced 81.94 million barrels over the two month period, leaving about 26.55 million barrels for domestic use. Despite being Africa’s largest crude producer, the country continues to export a large share of its oil while local refineries struggle to secure sufficient supply.
The situation is particularly critical for the Dangote refinery, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day but has repeatedly complained of receiving far below its required crude volumes. The facility requires about 19.77 million barrels monthly to operate at full capacity but has consistently received only a fraction of that amount.
Between October 2025 and mid March 2026, the refinery reportedly faced a crude supply shortfall of about 79.53 million barrels. During that period, monthly deliveries ranged from 3.6 million to 6.45 million barrels, far below requirements.
The imbalance has forced the refinery to rely heavily on imported crude, despite the existence of the naira for crude arrangement with the national oil company. The refinery has argued that upstream producers are not meeting domestic supply obligations, even as exports continue.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has maintained that it is working to balance domestic supply with international commitments. Officials say the company is sourcing additional crude through its global trading network to support local refining needs.
However, industry stakeholders insist that prioritising exports over domestic refining undermines Nigeria’s energy security and contradicts the intent of the Petroleum Industry Act, which emphasizes meeting local demand first.
The supply gap has also contributed to volatility in fuel pricing. The Dangote refinery has previously adjusted petrol prices above N1,300 per litre before later reducing them to around N1,250 per litre, citing high crude acquisition costs and limited local supply.
Stakeholders in the refining sector continue to call for improved crude allocation to domestic refineries, arguing that le feedstock supply is essential for reducing fuel import dependence and ilizing pump prices.
As global oil markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, Nigeria’s balancing act between exports and domestic refining is expected to remain a key policy challenge in the months ahead.
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